Draft Engine Expert Analysis
As part of last year's HotSheet (a magazine update we provide to subscribers), we dove deep on how to address the wide receiver position in your drafts, and the results were so good that we just had to bring it back up. With that said, here's what our WR page looked like in last year's late-August update, and hopefully it'll be enough to get you excited for what we have in the coming season.
How do you make sense of a crowded wide receiver group?
There isn’t much separation between our projected fantasy points in the 12 to 24 range of our WRs, so it’s OK to wait a bit on your WR2. Amongst the group, Kenny Golladay has the best chance of turning in WR1 production in his third season, and his late-fourth-round ADP is a bargain. We also love Chris Godwin, who figures to be a huge part of Tampa’s offense, but so does most of the fantasy world. Alshon Jeffery just needs to stay healthy for a great season with huge TD potential, and his WR30 ADP is absurdly cheap.
Who are your favorite end-of-draft, deep sleepers at wide receiver?
Courtland Sutton is the most gifted WR in Denver, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see him supplant Emmanuel Sanders (a 32-year-old coming off surgeries on both ankles) as the Broncos’ No. 1 by midseason. His tenth-round ADP is enticing. . . . Devin Funchess is worth a late-round flier as the potential No. 2 on an offense that still has an excellent coach and a serviceable QB. . . . Reports all summer suggest that Jamison Crowder is going to be heavily featured in the new Jets offense. . . . D.K. Metcalf’s knee injury has left him undrafted in many leagues, but he’s reportedly close to returning and should soon be the No. 2 in Seattle’s very thin WR/TE corps.
Which wide receivers are going to disappoint at their current ADPs?
Julian Edelman’s WR14 ADP is too early for a player with such a low ceiling. He’s the type of late-third-round pick that seventh-place finishes are made of. . . . A.J. Green at WR25 scares us. He’s on the wrong side of 30 and head coach Zac Taylor’s recent comments on his recovery from ankle surgery made it seem as if Green is in danger of missing half of the season. . . . The last time Josh Gordon was a truly dominant player, so were Demaryius Thomas and Jamaal Charles. Since 2013, he’s played at a 1,000-yard, 4-TD pace. With a franchise that thought they could keep Aaron Hernandez on the straight and narrow, his WR26 ADP is way too high for a huge risk without huge upside. . . . Since Cam Newton’s rookie year, Carolina’s No. 2 WRs have produced 659 yards and 3 TD per 16 games. Curtis Samuel at WR33 is extremely pricey given that history.